MORE BAD NEWS FOR EUROPE; FORECASTERS PREDICT COLDER WINTER AND LESS RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY

Needless to say, the forecast – which is based on data from the ECMWF and several other weather prediction systems including those in the UK, US, France and Japan – is a major problem for European politicians, as they:

1) Try to contain soaring energy costs for businesses and households, due to ill-advised EU sanctions on Russia, which responded by huge cuts in gas deliveries to “unfriendly countries”, and to

2) Moderate public anger and outrage at the coming freezing winter, where Europe has somehow promised to cut demand by as much as 20%, but nobody knows just how that would be done.

Adding insult to injury, Europe’s fascination with wind and solar will once again be a huge disappointment:

Rabier said, recent hurricanes across the Atlantic could cause milder, wetter and windier weather in the short term. But cooler weather, later in the year, would be consistent with the atmospheric conditions known as La Niña, a weather pattern derived from the cooling of the Pacific Ocean’s surface, which drives changes in wind and rainfall patterns in different regions.

Of course, this could prove to be just another example of Europe being woefully wrong at forecasting, well, anything (just note the ECB’s track record).

Weather in Europe is difficult to predict as the conditions are dictated by several remote factors including winds in the tropical stratosphere and surface pressure across the Atlantic.

In any case, there is a faint silver lining to Europe’s coming deep freeze: as Reuters’ reporter John Kemp reports, Europe is entering winter with a near-record volume of gas in storage after buying large volumes at almost any price over the summer.

Gas inventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom had climbed to 996 terawatt-hours (TWh) by Sept. 30, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). For the time of year, inventories were at the third highest on record, with higher volumes only in 2020 (1,074 TWh) and 2021 (1,067 TWh).

.
As Kemp forecasts, Inventories are likely to continue increasing for at least another three weeks until late October, but the build could persist into early November, depending on temperatures and how far high prices restrain consumption.

Since 2011, the median date on which storage peaked was Oct. 26, but in two cases inventories continued rising into the first half of November.

Based on previous seasonal movements, storage is expected to peak around 1,025 TWh, with a likely range from 1,009 TWh to 1,053 TWh.

.
Is it enough?

EU storage is more than 89% full and UK storage is more than 94% full, with extra stocks likely to be added over the next 3-6 weeks.

Storage is well ahead of the formal target of 80% this year (preferably 85%) by Nov. 1 agreed by the EU in June (“Council adopts regulation on gas storage”, European Council, June 27).

According to Kemp, European governments have fulfilled their stated objective of maximizing the volume of gas in storage ahead of winter 2022/23

But storage is intended to deal with seasonal variations in consumption, not provide a strategic reserve in case of an embargo or blockade.

Maximizing the volume of stored gas will alleviate the impact of any supply disruptions, but it is not enough to guarantee supply security.

In the event of a complete cessation of imports from Russia, a colder than normal winter, such as the one forecast, or both, gas would become scarce before the end of March 2023.

Even if Europe scrapes through this winter, inventories are likely to end at very low levels, requiring another, perhaps even bigger, restocking next year ahead of winter 2023/24. And where would THAT gas come from?

Bottom line: Inventory accumulation has put Europe in a stronger position, than at this time last year, however last year had normal deliveries from Russia, i.e., STORAGE WOULD NEED TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TO COVER THE WINTER OF 2023/2024

Regional supplies from outside Europe are highly uncertain, which will require further actions from:

1) Markets, such as reducing consumption and energy efficiency and partially shutting down high-energy consuming industries, and

2) Policymakers, such as raising interest rates to induce a multi-year recession to reduce demand, production and imports

And if Europe has a truly cold winter, then all bets are off…

NEW ENGLAND

By the way, all of this, including rolling blackouts at ZUB-ZERO temperatures, and a lack of gas and oil for  space heating, applies to New England, if:

1) New York State keeps obstructing new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England; THIS SHOULD BE LEGALLY FORBIDDEN AS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL INTERFERENCE OF INTER-STATE COMMERCE, and

2) The New England oil, gas and coal storage capacities near power plants are not increased by at least 100% to ensure RELIABLE ELECTRICAL SERVICE IN WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT, IF UNCERTAIN, MOTHER-NATURE, WEATHER-DEPENDENT WIND AND SOLAR WERE FURTHER EXPANDED, AS THE US AIMS TO BLINDLY COPY THE DISASTROUS EUROPEAN SCENARIO

These articles and image are provided for reference.