The Pinatubo Study

By: Tom D. Tamarkin July 26, 2021

The following temperature cause and effect correlations are generally known and accepted by most climate scientists and researchers.

• Correlation of decrease in average worldwide temperature and volcanic activity are high.

• Correlation of increase in average worldwide temperatures and El Niño events are high.

• Correlation of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration preceding temperature increases is nonexistent; correlation of increasing temperatures followed by increased CO₂ concentration is high.

The total atmospheric CO₂ concentration represented by the Mauna Loa, Hawaii, Keeling curve shows a virtual 45 degree slope straight line rate of annual change from 337 ppm (parts per million) in 1979 to 408 ppm in 2018. The rate of change in annual anthropogenic global fossil-fuel carbon emissions is shown to be, in five year time frames, from 1979 to 1999, as follows; 1979-84 -89%, 1984-89 +817%, 1989-94 +169%, 1994-99 +344%, 1999-2004 +1,197%, 2004-2009 +933%. This shows that the Keeling curve reflecting total atmospheric CO₂ concentration is not materially affected by annual anthropogenic global fossil-fuel carbon emissions as these sporadic changes are not represented on the Keeling curve.

On March 19, 2020, the COVID19 related lockdowns took effect virtually worldwide. From the period of March 20, 2020 to March 20, 2021 there was an approximate 30% reduction in the use of hydrocarbon fuels worldwide across all energy sectors of residential, commercial, industrial and transportation. Yet on March 20, 2021 the Mauna Loa Keeling curve continued its rise to nearly 418 ppm at a slope consistent with the last fifty years. In other words, even with a massive reduction of worldwide fuel use, the CO₂ trends recorded at Mauna Loa continued to rise in a slope undetectably different from that over the last 50 years.

Figure 1 below represents the Mauna Loa (HI) Keeling curve which is the most common format presentation of CO₂ increases. The slope of the curve is close to 45 degrees when plotted for a forty year period using the extremely exaggerated scale of 100 parts per million on the vertical axis. The predominate view of the majority of climate scientists is that the red irregular sawtooth wave superimposed over the Keeling CO₂ plot represents sessional changes in CO₂ due to plant life cycles. The orange dots signify volcanic activity events.

What the graph does not show is any change in slope resulting from the sporadic changes in fossil fuel use as developing countries put more fossil fuel generating plants online; nor the recent significant decreases in the use of fossil fuels due to the worldwide COVID19 pandemic.

What this shows in scientific and engineering terms is that the signal to noise ratio between anthropogenic CO₂ (the desired signal) versus the CO₂ flux (background noise) is too low to measure the real time anthropogenic CO₂ component of the total CO₂ reservoir.

Our scientific team has solved this problem of measurement and post computational analysis such that we will be able to deduce and define the accurate quantitative ratio of real time anthropogenic CO₂ in the atmosphere. We believe the final number will be greater than one hundredth of one percent and less than one tenth of one percent.

Contrast this predicted figure of merit to the claims by the mainstream climate scientists that ALL the “increases in CO₂ since the industrial revolution” are manmade.

And, of course, it must be recognized that CO₂ is not homogeneously mixed in the atmosphere but rather ebbs and flows and is subject to the natural movements in air currents worldwide.

As part of the ongoing patent process of “A Preferred Means to Measure and Calculate The Relative Percentage of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Within the Earth’s Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Reservoir,” the inventors of which are Tomer (Tom) Tamarkin and Clare Livingston (Bud) Bromley, we are conducting a preliminary study (hereinafter referred to as the “Pinatubo Study ”) to test and refine our scientific and mathematical means of determining the real time content of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the Earth’s CO₂ atmospheric reservoir. This study will, in part, provide exemplary discussion in the patent(s) and its methods will constitute specific, patent claims.

We have engaged the professional services of Shahar ben-Menahem Ph.D. and Abraham Ishihara, Ph.D., both of whom are doctoral graduates of Stanford University, to conduct the Pinatubo Study under the direction of Bud Bromley and Tom Tamarkin. The intent of this study is to use existing data to validate our scientific hypotheses that CO₂ levels are:

1. Dominated entirely by natural rapidly changing chemical exchanges between CO₂ contained in the air and hydrosphere, primarily the oceans

2. Virtually unaffected by human activities such as the use of hydrocarbon fuels and production of cement.

3. Are primarily responsive to global temperatures and solar radiation.

Our intent is to verify this hypothesis through the analysis of records maintained by public institutions of CO₂ atmospheric levels over periods defined in the chart below with particular emphasis on the periods surrounding the June 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption in the 1991-1993 time periods.

Figure 1 

The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is a natural phenomenon.  It is dominantly controlled by the temperature of the surface of ocean which in turn is controlled by the amount of sunlight on the surface of the ocean.  When there are extended periods of high altitude clouds, such as caused by the massive 1991 eruption of Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines, then less sunlight reaches the surface of the ocean.  Less sunlight results in cooler ocean surface.  CO₂ is much more soluble in cold water than warm water, thus cold soda pop or beer retains its fizz.  During and following the Pinatubo eruption, ocean surface in the tropics around the earth cooled and absorbed more CO₂, but humans did not stop using fossil fuels during that period.  Out project will exploit this differential to quantify the amount of human produced CO₂.

Preliminary estimates are that the manmade component of the total CO₂ atmospheric reservoir is between 0.019 and 0.059%. Our U.S. and international patent pending method will provide a definitive number. This falsifies AGW or man produced climate change.
As the above chart shows, Pinatubo is one of many instances of major volcanic events. Other natural events such as El Nino’s also perturb the Earth’s climate and future iterations of analysis by our team should identify similar effect in recorded atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.

The scheduled completion date for the Pinatubo Study is 23 August, 2021.

To the extent that the Pinatubo Study verifies our hypotheses and the results are numerically quantifiable within the hypothetical limits, we will present the results of this study to a consortium of energy companies to raise funds for the second phase of the project without diluting company ownership and mitigating the IP.

In the second phase we will connect these events to uniquely reveal a trend line of measured human CO₂ emissions which we have extracted from the natural CO₂ background. The “bottom line” figure of merit will be the real time anthropogenic CO₂ component of the CO₂ reservoir in the Earth’s troposphere.

Simply put in terms nonscientists, lay people, politicians and the media can understand, we will determine and write out how much of the CO₂ in the atmospheric reservoir of CO₂ is manmade.

We believe this will be sufficient to falsify AGW/climate change.

Additionally we will create a proprietary software tool which for the first time allows users to measure the non-fluctuating steady state rate of increase of mean atmospheric CO₂ trend which is due to natural causes— which is the perceived causation most climate researchers have been claiming as evidence for manmade climate change. This tool will be licensed on a fee bases to countries, research institutions, universities and the like worldwide.