Preprint #3: Human carbon emissions caused only 25% of the CO2 increase

Preprint #3: Human carbon emissions caused only 25% of the CO2 increase

August 12, 2021: Today, the Swiss journal “Atmosphere” accepted this for publication. | September 12, 2021

Comments by scientists:

Dear Ed, Congratulations – a wonderful piece of work.” – Dr. Nils-Axel Morner

A proper model must address all CO2 in the atmosphere at once, without discrimination. You do that magnificently from first principles.” – Dr. Gordon Fulks

Ed does not make mathematical mistakes in solving his rate equations.” – Dr. William Happer

Dr. Richard Courtney wrote in his email to on November 21, 2019:

Dear Ed,

I again provided my 2008 paper as an attachment to an email earlier today.  Its conclusion to which you refer is on its pages 6 and 7 and says,

“In the light of all the above considerations it would appear that the relatively large increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in the twentieth century (some 30%) is likely to have been caused by the increased mean temperature that preceded it.  The main cause may be desorption from the oceans.  The observed time lag of half a century is not surprising.  Assessment of this conclusion requires a quantitative model of the carbon cycle, but – as previously explained – such a model cannot be constructed because the rate constants are not known for mechanisms operating in the carbon cycle.”

Your “physics model” quantifies the anthropogenic and natural contributions to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration without need for knowledge of rate constants for individual mechanisms.  This is a breakthrough in understanding which Segalstad, Harde, Salby, and myself all failed to make.


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