All posts in Reference

By Andy May Soon, Connolly and Connolly (2015) is an excellent paper (pay walled, for the authors preprint, go here) that casts some doubt about two critical IPCC AR5 statements, quoted below: The IPCC, 2013 report page 16: “Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium confidence).” Page 17: “It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and …

Willie Soon, Ronan Connolly, Michael Connolly Abstract Debate over what influence (if any) solar variability has had on surface air temperature trends since the 19th century has been controversial. In this paper, we consider two factors which may have contributed to this controversy: Several different solar variability datasets exist. While each of these datasets is constructed on plausible grounds, they often imply contradictory estimates for the trends in solar activity since the 19th century. Although attempts have been made to account for non-climatic biases in previous estimates of surface airtemperature trends, recent research by two of the authors has shown …

Jamal Munshi Sonoma State University Date Written: August 25, 2018 Abstract Climate models predict that rising atmospheric CO2 will simultaneously warm the troposphere and cool the stratosphere. This combination of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling is found in the observational data over a period of rising atmospheric CO2. Although strong correlations between these time series are found in the source data, the correlations do not survive into the detrended series at annual or five-year time scales. The absence of detrended correlation implies that the correlations seen in the source data derive from shared trends and not from responsiveness at annual …