All posts in Papers

By Ad Huijser (corresponding address ah@on.nl) Summary: By applying a simple feedback model for the response of the atmosphere to GHG-forcing at TOA, the GCM’s CMIP3/5 derived climate feedback values are being discussed in view of a.o. the CERES satellite data about trends in globally averaged surface temperatures and diminishing cloud-cover. It is shown that the trends in cloudiness during the period 1980-2020 are inconsistent with a CO2-only scenario, unless accepting extremely high ECS values of around 8K/2xCO2. Taking those trends in cloudiness as extra, independent forcing, results in a value of the climate sensitivity for the change in cloud …

Abstract Allen and Tett (1999, herein AT99) introduced a Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression methodology for decomposing patterns of climate change for attribution purposes and proposed the “Residual Consistency Test” (RCT) to check the GLS specification. Their methodology has been widely used and highly influential ever since, in part because subsequent authors have relied upon their claim that their GLS model satisfies the conditions of the Gauss-Markov (GM) Theorem, thereby yielding unbiased and efficient estimators. But AT99 stated the GM Theorem incorrectly, omitting a critical condition altogether, their GLS method cannot satisfy the GM conditions, and their variance estimator is …

Abstract In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estimates are “low variability” and half are “high variability”. Meanwhile, five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring widths as temperature proxies; …

Peter Stallinga University of the Algarve, FCT-DEEI, Faro, Portugal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2020, 10, 40-80 https://www.scirp.org/journal/acs ISSN Online: 2160-0422 ISSN Print: 2160-0414 Abstract Climate change is an important societal issue. Large effort in society is spent on addressing it. For adequate measures, it is important that the phenomenon of climate change is well understood, especially the effect of adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. In this work, a theoretical fully analytical study is presented of the so-called greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide. The effect of this gas in the atmosphere itself was already determined as being of little importance …

P. Stallinga, Igor Khmelinskii Universidade do Algarve, Portugal Reprinted from ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT VOLUME 25 No. 1 2014 ABSTRACT In this work contemporary climate ideas are analyzed in the light of the Scientific Method developed through the ages. The conclusion is that science was not used in this subject. Download PDF This browser does not support PDFs. Please download the PDF to view it..

Igor Khmelinskii Universidade do Algarve Follows the text of my expert review, as submitted to the IPCC (Reviewer file: 721; submission date: 2012­11­30; Reviewer ID: 1249). Download PDF This browser does not support PDFs. Please download the PDF to view it..

Article in Global and Planetary Change · January 2013 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.08.008 Ole Humlum, Kjell Stordahl, Jan-Erik Solheim Abstract Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2. In our analysis we use eight well-known …